Micro organism can shake the mighty. Powerful countries with weapons of mass destruction, nuclear arsenal and big arny are all sudden threatened by a invisible little virus.
It is also a remainder that bactria and virus are a part of the planet earth. Human beings belong to the earth rather than earth belong to human beings.Bacteria and Virus don't necessarily need human beings but human beings need them to survive. They are a part of our srishti, sthithi and samhara. Gods of small things are always within us, around us and beyond us.
Covid ( Corona Virus Disease 19( has become an omnipresence from global to local and omnipotent to create a shared sense of fear from the most powerful to the lest powerful. Human beings often don't realize that bacteria and virus are eternal presence in the evolution of the planet earth. microorganisms are gods of smal things with big impact.
Countries with readiness for any war anywhere in the world are perplexed when a little corona virus forces us to rethink about seeming invincibility of mighty countries and regime. The most powerful countries such as US, China and Western Europe who fought so many wars and killed millions look more perplexed and worried than ever.
Covid 19 ( corona virus disease 19) virus is now spread of the world, leading to unprecedented consequence in the recent history of the world. The lockdown in various countries and various responses by the government, market and civil society will influence the choices in the future.
The global travel covid 19 virus traveled fast to all corners of the world due to globalization. However, the most important contribution of covid 19 is the chances of humanizing the world and the worldview. Disasters and pandemic are also a great human equalizer. Because virus doesn't have class, creed, color, gender, language, religion, ethnicity or nationality. It affects the rich and the poor, the powerful and powerless. Human anxieties are spread across. Social institutions like family and political institutions like the governments /state became locus of new humanization, trust and security. All of sudden many are a bit more concerned about the poor and marginalized people whoever never in the priority of many
Here are such seven possible political, economic and social consequence of an unprecedented global pandemic :
1) Reclaiming the role of state and government.
In the last thirty years of neo liberal policy framework and approach, reform agenda often meant retreat of the state as enabling agent of the free market. Liberalization, globalization and privatization became a sort of neoliberal dogma.
Many of the governments promoted privatisation of health care, strengthening private insurance as a means to accesing healthcare, privatisation of water distribution and disinvestment from some of the core sectors. As a result public health in many countries were simply taken for granted.
All this is simply changed in the last one month. State and government has become the key driver of fighting the pandemic and reclaiming the role of the state in an unprecedented way across most of the countries of the world.
This pandemic in a way once again exposed the limitations of neo-liberal market driven framework.
One of the paradox the pandemic created is even a temporary mode of deglobalization. The global travel network made a local epidemic covid 19 made it in to a global pandemic. The virus traveled super fast through airways. International travel once seen as sexy is dreaded. Quarantine became normal. And internationalism got replaced by national protectionist approach everywhere, not only at the national level but also at sub national level. The travel ban created and unprecedented situation in the history of the world.
What was normal became abnormal and abnormal became normal.
2) Crisis Legitimacy
During any big disasters, war or pandemic there are two aspects of legitimacy that operated. Legitimacy of crisis management and crisis of legitimacy due to perceived failure in crisis management.
The new heroes/heroines in many countries are those who are seen to be responding in a pro active manner and communicating to the people on a regular basis. This is seen in many countries.
Despite strong ideological or political differences, people seem to be applauding leaders and officers who are perceived as taking timeline policy and systemic action that provide a semblance or security, assurance and support system to the people.
Many leaders who were seen as ordinary leaders all of a sudden grew in to larger than life heroes and heroins. This is partly due to their own crisis management leadership capability and partly due to unprecedented communicative space and media attentions. In many countries such leaders are elected political leaders, government officers, military officials or top health experts.
At the same due to delayed action or reactive policy approach or gap between public expectations and delivery, there is a crises of legitimacy of leadership in many countries.
Communication is key in perception management. And here the important aspect is also language and mode of communication. An inclusive modes of public action and communication can make a big positive difference in the public perception. And selective communication to the predominant constituency of a leader can lead to negative perceptions among those who are beyond such constituency.
3). Reemergence of public health as a necessary public good
The pandemic reinforced one of the fact that there is no substitute for an effective public health care system. Over the last thirty years, in the context of unprecedented privatization of health care, public health was undermined, budget were cut and regarded as a lesser kind of professional options even in the medical education.
In many countries, medical professionals opted for specializations that would have potential to earn huge amount of income as consulting super specialist.
As public health and community health were largely government or non government employment with less income, many of medical professionals opted out of public health profession
All of a sudden public health and public health professionals are in the foreground and became frontier warriors in fighting the pandemic.
People all of a sudden realized how investment in universal public health care is crucial for a sustainable economy.
4) Normalizing surveillance.
Governments in many countries have used the pandemic crisis to increase and scale up the technology citizens surveillance mechanism. Bio-metric and biomedical tracking systems are developed.
While the pandemic crisis has normalized these surveillance systems, this cam be used in the future to control the people and identify the critique of the government and also big data driven subversion and manipulation of democracy.
5) Ascent of online life
As countries are lockdown the social media platforms and online entertainment options have received unprecedented attention. People who often did not have time to be active on social media platform all of a sudden. This has resulted in the higher activity rates of social media platform.
Likewise online supply of goods and services became the most crucial 'private run ' public services.Food Delivery boys of online food platform like Zomato and others have become very important persons who make access to food possible
Online entertainment platform like Netflix, and Youtube will have huge business. Many of the newspapers also became online.
Online life became the only means to connect across the world and globalization of virtual world became a reality of life
Working from home became normal. This has changed the way offices have functioned. There is a big chance, working from home become normal in the post corona phase. As many companies are going to face huge economic challenges and deficit, many of the offices will be shut.
There will be new customized technology to construction and manage new online offices with seamless virtual reality almost like a regular office. There is chance that this become a global trend as people will travel less till an effective virus is discovered and fear of the pandemic is subdued.
6) Economic Consequence
There are going to be multiple crisis of economy. The obvious adverse impact will be on travel, tourism, hospitality and allied business. This in turn affect the global supply chain that could affect number of spheres.
The decreasing use of oil will affect the oil economy and countries that directly or indirectly depend on oil economy.
The lockdown will directly affect micro, small and medium level business in a big way. If the pandemic persist beyond May, millions of small business that provide job to billions will face closure.
All these will increase under -employment and unemployment of middle class. Most of the vulnerable poor survive on self employment and in the informally sector. The income of daily wage earners will be affected. All these will increase the instance and percentage of poverty
At the same time, public finance is being overstretched. As the economy slow down, the revenue of the government will be affected. The budget calculations and assumption may change. Hence, government may have to have the contingency plan for the economy as well as for public finance
One of the major consequence will be income of non government organizations, charitable organizations and even CSR will get affected. This is due to three factors.. The OECD countries which provided bulk of international funds are the one affected badly by the pandemic. Their budgets and public finance are overstretched. All these mean there will be less budget allocation fot mean international development assistance /cooperation.. This will affect multilateral and bilateral funding. Many ny of the UN agencies and international non government organizations wil be affected.
Secondly, as the economic crisis will lead to more under -employment, and unemployment. Hence there will be less spare money for charity. Thirdly as the profit margins of companies will be affected, there is going to be less resources for CSR funds
If the pandemic doesn't go away in the next two months, many of the non governmental organizations will be closed or merged Hence, unless big and small development organizations have contingency plan there is a looming danger of imminent closure.
7 ) Family and care economy
The unprecedented lockdown brought family in to focus This will have number of consequence. The biggest advantage is people get quality time to spend with their parents, partner and children. At the time of crisis, family bonds get reinforced.
Young partners who spent more time in the professional preoccupation most of the day or spent too much time in commuting all of a sudden more spare time to spend. During the times of war or stress, many people find sex as a stess -buster as well as a pleasurable mutual feel good options. Hence there is a chance of pandemic baby-boom.
However, the economic consequence and possible less income may affect the care economy. Many a time women often end up spending more time cleaning, cooking and feeding This care economy where the work of women at home are often outside the conventional economic growth will get overstretched during the lock down. Increasing worries about decreasing income and its impact on care economy may lead to domestic discord and consequential separation or divorces. This could increase the instance of depression, and mental health issues in many families
Elderly people are vulnerable. If the pandemic persists, the health as well as gross domestic happiness of elderly people may get affected. The new stress of loneliness, fear and isolation can create mental health issues to elderly people..
In the history of the world, it is huge crises that led to imagination, creativity , innovation and new initiative. It often gave rise to the development of new science technology and institutions. It is a paradox of human life that when we seek more security, insecurity perpetually follow us and sometimes overtake us.
Crises can also make human beings humble. The more we tend to conquer the universe, micro organism of the planet make us acutely aware about eternal vulnerability of human life. When human being are faced with fear, we seek freedom through imagination and creativity. Fear of covid can on the one hand make us acutely aware about human limitations and on the other hand create the human will to overcome any challenge.
Because what drive human beings are faith, hope and love. Love, the ideal that sets us free to imagine and create. Hence, it is our perennial hope that make us sing.
"We shall overcome someday, and we are not alone "
JS Adoor
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