The world of politics, economic models and organizational designs that emerged between 1977-82 and then 2000 to 2006 will begin to move to the next phase of transitions from 2024 to 30
Each of the transitions in the last hundred years is marked by the shift in technology, economy and politics. When these change happen political ideologies and institutional models too shift.
I. First Transition (1918-1925)
If we study the world history of twentieth century, major transitions happened in the aftermath of the first World War. The end of Ottoman Empire marked the end of almost five hundred years of rule by an Islamic Empire.
Discovery of Oil in the Arabian peninsula and the Gulf countries made the new the new international political economy of oil and new middle east politics.
October Revolution in Russia, Stalinism rise of Communism, Fascism and Nazism, anti colonial struggles, and League all happened from 1918-25. The roots of Second World War too emerged during the same phase.
It is aso during the same phase the first global pandemic flue killed millions of people
The Indian freedom struggle became a mass movement during this phase. Great depression was brewing.
II Second Transition (1945-50)
The next big transition was between 1945- 50. The ideological basis of liberal welfare state with Democracy, Development and Human Rights emerged during this phase.
Establishment of the United Nations with a Liberal Democratic charter, establishment of Bretton wood Institutions, including the World Bank, International Development as a foreign policy tool, decolonization, emergence of newly independent countries, and the beginning of the cold war happened during this phase.
Most of the big charities like Oxfam and bilateral and foundation funding for developing newly decolonized countries too began during the phase.
Korean War signaled the Cold War that continued for the next thirty years. China emerged as an international power
India emerged as an Independent country. The partition killed millions and India -Pakistan conflict began.
With that emergence of Israel, the political equations in West Asia and Middle East changed.
Radio as a technology grew and radio became a much wider means for mass communications
III.. Third Transition (1977-82)
The third big transition happened between 1977-82. Neo Liberal Economic policy shift and the emergence of new identity based neoconservative politics began during this phase. This shift was signified by the Regan -Thatcher Era.
The rise of Islamist politics in Iran signaling a shift in the direct use of religious identity for new politics. The experiment of democracy in Pakistan ended with hanging of ZA Bhutto and emergence Military Rule by Ziaul Haque.
USA began to use religion as an antidote to USSR Communist block. They used the Ziaul Haque to fund Taliban and initiate jihad in Afghanistan. They also used new charismatic crusade evangelism in many parts of Eastern block.
In India, in the post emergency period, the dominant Congress party began to lose ground and the very first non Congress PM cabinet emerged. The present ruling party BJP was formed. BSP and many of the political parties in India emerged during the same phase.
In Bangladesh, Sri Lanka too major political shift happened. In many countries in Africa, Latin America too shifted
Communism as a state ideology began to get saturated. The big shift in China under Deng Xiaoping, signaled the shift. Soviet economy began to flounder. Though the USSR and eastern block crumbled with the fall of Berlin Wall in 1989, the real unraveling began in 1977-82 period.
With the rise in oil price and oil boom, new oil economies emerged in the gulf countries. This sparked the big Gulf migration from India and South Asian Countries.
What is now known as the NGOs (Non -Governmental Organizations ) and INGOs too emerged during the same transition. This was due to the strategic shift in international bilateral development funding in OECD countries.
Till then International funding was only for government and with the shift to nongovernmental organisation, civil society organizations became a countervailing power to the power of government. Foreign Contributions Regulation Act (FCRA too) commenced during this phase.
Of course, this was also a part of the larger strategy of globalization of market.
Television as a medium became much known and accessible in this transition. Within the next fourty years TV influenced politics.
IV. Fourth Transition(2000-2006)
International political equations changed.in the beginning of the new millennium. China emerged as an economic and military power.. India emerged as a powerful economy. Brazil, South Africa, Russia economies grew. The G7 power began to decrease. New formations like G 20.and BRICS emerged.
The 9/11 attack on World Trade Centre and Pentagon signaling the power of non-state actors, and religion as a major fault -line in the national and international politics. War on terrorism became a marker of national and international politics.
The language of security eclipsed the language of human rights, development and democracy. National security became sacrosanct. And the age of surveillance began, first at the airports and then everywhere.
This was also the period of paradigm shift in technology, with the emergence of digital technology.
The war on terror in Afghanistan and then in Iraq sharpened political divide where religious identity became a marker of multiple conflicts.
The dominance of USA and European countries began to decrease.
Fifth Shift (2024-30)
The pandemic in 2020 is a marker of the big shift. This pandemic in many ways is akin to a third World War. This time the global villain is Covid 19.
The Covid Pandemic ravaged economies, globalized fear, stretched the government system, killed more than a million and affected every single country in the world. It changed the way we live, travel, work and communicate.
The Covid 19.also increased the crisis of governance and decreased the legitimacy of many ruling dispensations.. This period also signaled both ideological and legitimacy crisis of politics parties.
However, the biggest cumulative impact is going to be in the economies across the world.
Here are few potential trends in the next few years :
1).Many of the political leaders and political parties will become redundant. This will happen not only India but across the world.
2).The present dominance of neoconservative right wing politics will be eclipsed in a possible global and national economic crisis. This will force political parties to reboot or change.
New leaders will emerge all over, including in India.
3) NGOs and INGOs will totally shift. The present model of international funding will be over. And along with the crack down by neo conservative government, shift in bilateral and multi lateral funding and economic slow down in many countries wil kill thousands of fund dependent NGOs /INGOs across the world
Many of INGOs and NGOs will merge to survive
4) In the post -Covid economic recession, most of the UN agencies will drastically cut down the budget and lay of thousands of staff. Many of the agencies will be forced to merge and many of them will be closed.. Some of them may even shift thier headquarters to China or others countries in Asia. China will become a major funder of the UN System.
5).With emergence of new break -through technology in non-fossil power, there will a shift from oil economy. Gulf boom will recede and employment opportunity will reduce.
6) With emergence of Artificial intelligence, the present model of education, health care, modes of travel will change. Many of those big offices will be shut. More and more people will work from home or local workstations with new seamless technology.
7) Green political ideology will become more prevalent. There will be new articulation of political ideologies
8) With huge shift in international politics and possible economic crisis, the possibilities of War /Wars will increase.
9) Despite break- through technology, new insecurities will persist. There will be an increasing number of young people opting out of traditional marriage. However, the insecurities will also make many people more religious.
10)The notions of habitat will change. More and more people will opt smaller houses with better technology and better security.
11)Print media will become redundant. Even the present mode of TV will change dramatically.
Politics and economy will look dramatically different in 2030. There will be very different political leaders, and new economic actors.
JS Adoor
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