Saturday, April 26, 2008

The Economics of Violence: Growth with Inequality

The World Bank claims that poverty in Asia has been halved between 1990 and 2003. But, says John Samuel, the story looks good only until you see the underbelly of this economic growth – growing inequality, violence and pollution


Here’s the good news. The economy of Asia is surging ahead. Sustained economic growth seems to have contributed to the reduction of poverty. The World Bank says that poverty rates in Asia as a whole (based on consumption levels of less than $1 per day) have been almost halved in the last decade, falling from 34.3% in 1990 to 19.3% in 2003. Most countries are making steady progress towards achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015. China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam have all witnessed more than a 50% poverty reduction since 1990 and these countries are supposed to be on track to meet the MDG targets of a further 50% reduction in income poverty by 2015. Literacy rates are going up, infant and maternal mortality is falling, and people are living longer. Asian cities are booming, with signs of prosperity everywhere. More and more billionaires are laughing their way to the banks year after year. The pundits say that the time of Asia has come -- it is an Asian Century, with China as the global factory, India as the global office, and the stock exchanges rocking. The story looks good!

The story looks good till you notice the underbelly of economic growth: unprecedented levels of inequality, violence, epidemics, congested roads, teeming slums, polluted rivers and failing democracies. The story looks good till you begin to hear the stories of dalits, tribals, ethnic minorities, women from the hinterlands of rural deprivation. Stories that you may never read in the newspaper, unheard stories of invisible people, people displaced from land and livelihoods, people who prefer to commit suicide rather than sell their dignity, children who go to bed hungry every single day. Two-thirds of the world’s poor live in Asia. There will still be more than a billion people living on less than $ 2 a day in 2015. So is Asia shining? Is economic growth good for billionaires or billons of people?

What is the balance sheet of Asia’s economic growth? Whose growth is it anyway? Who grows and who loses? Can economic growth alone eliminate poverty in Asia? What are the key challenges for development, democracy and human rights in Asia? We need to situate the story of economic growth in the well-being, human security and human rights of the most marginalised and excluded people in Asia. In spite of all the growth, if there are still more than one billion people living on less than $2 a day in 2015, the story can turn sour! But it seems the ruling elite and media barons cannot stomach the bad news.

Economic growth with inequality creates an economics of deprivation and violence. The present model of economic growth displaces millions of rural and urban poor from their land and livelihoods. As a result of unprecedented displacement due to mining, infrastructure projects and corporate farming, a new generation of social-economic refugees and new poor are emerging across Asia. They are growing in urban slums, rural areas and in highly concentrated pockets of extreme poverty. A new discontent is brewing and it can adversely affect development, democracy and human rights in Asia.

While economic growth helps to create more opportunities for the more educated section of the middle class and a ‘trickle-down’ effect on a section of the poor, it is creating unprecedented levels of inequality within countries and between countries.

Though China and India, two of the most populous countries in the world, are witnessing high rates of economic growth, there are regions lagging behind in both countries that have poor infrastructure or public service provisions. The urban and rural poor also face discrimination based on ethnicity, race, religion, caste, gender and place of origin. Women are more marginalised and vulnerable to a system that perpetuates inequality, discrimination and consequent poverty.

Economic growth is concentrated in a few urban centres and specially created economically dynamic zones in the costal areas of many countries. But two-thirds of the population in most populous countries -- like China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Pakistan -- still live in rural areas depending on agriculture for their livelihood. Historically marginalised sections like the dalits in India, ethnic minorities in China and South-East Asia and religious minorities in many countries are alienated from economic growth and the mainstream political process.

This urban-centric, uneven and jobless economic growth perpetuates a sort of systemic inequality based on identity, gender and location all over Asia. Most communities at the receiving end of exclusion are historically marginalised in terms of economic or political opportunities. When inequality has a direct co-relation with identity, it gives rise to new discontents. Such a sense of discontent and shared sense of alienation can often give rise to a new politics of violence -- reacting to the prosperity of the dominant communities.

Surrounding these islands of prosperity is a growing sea of poverty, discontent and consequent reactionary politics. This can perpetuate a cycle of violence, erasing the benefits of growth as well as poverty reduction. So the paradoxical trend of growth with inequality may not be able to sustain growth on a long-term basis. Political stability is a prerequisite for economic growth. Inequality can create more political instability, adversely affecting sustainable economic growth. This can eventually perpetuate a new cycle of poverty, violence and violation of human rights in Asia.

The present economic growth is vulnerable as it is largely dependent on the service sector and the export-oriented manufacturing sector, often at the cost of the agricultural sector that provides livelihoods to the poor and marginalised sections in Asia.

This urban-centric growth, with very little investment in rural infrastructure, economy or agricultural, also leads to an unprecedented migration from rural areas to urban areas. This explosion of populations in urban centres without adequate infrastructure and gainful employment opportunities can create a new generation of urban poor. Urban poverty and inequality -- with direct links to identity -- can create more violence against women and escalating crime rates in many countries.

Thus the present mode of neo-liberal economic growth is not sustainable in the long run as the billions at the receiving end of marginalisation and poverty can spoil the party, giving rise to a new cycle of poverty in Asia.

InfoChange News & Features, April 2008

Monday, April 14, 2008

Another Nigeria is Possible!

John Samuel



Nigeria is one the richest poor countries in Africa. It got one of the biggest reserves of oil and minerals in the world. But the richest natural resources are surrounded by the poorest of the people. While few rich in Abuja or in London make merry with the oil resources of Nigeria, the people who live in the midst of oil fields often go to bed hungry. This is the story in many African countries, with rich natural resources. In fact, instead of creating human development and econmic growth, rich natural resources seem to cause more conflicts. Such conflicts help the big companies to siphon off the resources in the midst of near anarchy and governments controlled by a power clique, without any accountability to the citizens.

But Nigeria does not have to be like this. Nigeria has a very vibrant society of around 150 million people, with a sense of history, cultural and national identity. It has all the potential to become a stable democratic and economic power, with substantial influence in the world

One of the reasons for poverty in Nigeria and most Africa is the extractive economic relationships between these countries and the big multinational corporations based in countries of the North. The latest economic actors on scene are the Chinese Companies in search of natural resources, business opportunities, with offers of strategic economic relationship and generous aid. There has not been a concerted effort to transform the economic potential of Nigeria by building a vibrant industrial sector. Nigeria used most of the economic resources out of the oil to pay off its huge debt to Northern countries and financial banks. Africa, more than any part of the world, is still at the receiving end of new forms of colonialism and imperialism, perpetuated by a mix of trade, aid, debt, military presence and subversion of democracy. Conflicts are partly the outcome of the process of colonialism and decolonialisation. Conflicts also help to perpetuate the business of small arms industry, largely based in the Northern countries. Conflicts not only kill so many innocent people, but it also drains off valuable economic and natural resources, perpetuating poverty in many parts of Africa. The situation gets further accentuated by the lack of democratic and accountable governance, subversion of governance and governments hijacked by political elites, often with the support of big economic and corporate interest groups.

God seems to be in plenty in Nigeria. Coca Cola too is around. Pepsi is not far behind. There may not be enough water or food. Teachers may not be in the school. Chiefs must be busy with their “royal paraphernalia”. The new world churches or spiritual shops, with all imaginable names from the Bible, promising prosperity are everywhere in Lagos and Abuja. Huge bill boards advertising prosperity gospel, get thousands of people in search of fortune, healings, and security. It seems that religion is a source of “security” for millions of people who are vulnerable to poverty, disease and violence in their real lives- the “opiate of the masses, the sigh of the oppressed’. In spite of everyone going to Church or Mosque or for prosperity gospel, most of the Nigerians are still poor. Most of the politically privileged ones tend to “cleanse” their corruptions by paying a part of their booty to those who mobilize in the name of God in the churches or mosques.



Abuja, the capital city of Nigeria, too is an irony. It looks like a brand new city out of no where. The broad and smooth roads, the impressive buildings and swanky cars on the streets do not have much to do with the reality of the vast majority of the poor people of Nigeria. Abuja signifies the tight rope political balance in a rather relatively bigger country like Nigeria, with religious, ethnic and linguistic diversity. Lagos, the biggest city, situated in the south, used to be capital of Nigeria. But the political power of Nigeria is relatively stronger and more organized in predominantly Muslim stronghold of the North. Abuja was developed as a city on a rather empty patch of land in the centre of Nigeria. Though the shifting of the Capital was decided way back in 1977, it is only in the early 1990s the capital was shifted to the newly constructed and relatively well planned city of Abuja. Abuja boasts of an impressive national Mosque and an equally impressive National Church. There are well planned office complexes, big bungalows, stadiums etc.


Abuja is in many ways symbolic of Nigeria. Though it looks like a relatively brand new city, with better planning, the City does not have any space for the poor or marginalized. The shining face of Nigeria cease to shine once you stay there for couple of days- constant power cuts, water shortage and lack of regular maintenance, in spite of billions of dollars of investment, signify the lack of accountable governance and the wide spread corruption that impedes the growth and the potential of a vibrant country.

The cost of living in Abuja is prohibitive enough for poor people to stay away from the city. All the hawkers, workers in the informal sector, and small scale traders all were driven out of the city. It seems that the Nigerian political and business elites do not want poor and marginalized people to disturb the image of the city. Most of the taxi drivers and those who are in the low paid jobs spend few hours every day commuting to and fro from Abuja , as they can not afford to have a house in Abuja. Nigeria is controlled by a cartel of political, economic and military elites who control the government, highly lucrative oil industry and big business. Abuja is their city. And it can only accommodate government employees with quarters and elite sections of the city.

If one is looking for culture, communities, poetry and vibrancy of African culture, Abuja is not the place to go. So I decided to go and spend time with real people and real communities in the Kaduna state. I had an opportunity to visit the “palace” of the Chief of the Bajja Community. The “palace” was his house with few rooms and a big hall (sort of big middle class house in a compound). This “royal meeting” with the “Paramount Ruler” of Bajja Community was once in a life time experience- there was something comic about it- the ceremony – the mock seriousness and drama involved in the whole show. I realized that the “His Royal Highness” is actually a book seller and he studied the “old” seventh class (supposed to be of high quality). He was so popular , dignified and “well read” ( as he used to sit in the book shop). So he was elevated to a Chief.


In Nigeria and many other African countries, democracy is a sort of modern system of governance drafted up on the traditional society and power structure, shaped by tribal identity and traditional chieftains and localized loyalties. Though there is a semblance of middle class in the cities, most of the villages are at the receiving end of poverty, without livelihood, sustainable agriculture or social development. The British ruled by co-opting the tribal chieftains by paying an allowance to them. Even now the practice continues. Most of the local Chieftains are paid by the government for their upkeep and maintenance of their “palaces”. The networks of government often work through the Chiefs at the grass roots level. Some of the Chiefs are well educated and they bring together people to address the local issues of development.


Though Nigeria got one of the most vibrant civil societies, social movements and NGOs in Africa, the politics of Nigeria has been turbulent. Since its independence from the British colonial masters in the 1960, Nigeria was more or less ruled by a privileged cartel of Military rulers or their chosen representatives. Most of the ruling elites of Nigeria come from the predominantly Muslim Hausa population in the Northern part. The present President Umar Yar’adua- brother of a former General Yar’adua, too is from the North- he was formerly the Governor of Katsina state. Though the last President Obasanjo was a Christian from the South, he too was nominated by the relatively influential northern lobby. Governance involves a tight balancing of power between the major tribes Hausa in the North, Yoruba in the South and Ibus in the South-east. In spite of occasional violence in some parts of Northern Nigeria, there is a conscious effort to respect the religious diversity and pluralism of Nigeria. This ensured relative stability, social development and economic growth in Nigeria.

The political parties are often stage managed by the “power cartel” consisting of Military generals, political leaders and powerful business man. Nigeria is one of the biggest producers of oil. But the irony is that Nigeria still imports petrol and diesel. This is because of the fact that most of the crude oil are exported and refined elsewhere and then imported for the local consumption. Most of the oil fields are managed by multinational companies like Shell. Nigerian rulers did not bother to build refineries to process the crude oil. Though there are few refineries, most of the oil is exported. It has been alleged that it was because of the fact that some of the most powerful political actors got a stake in the refineries outside the country and favorable export conditions help them to make millions of dollars. As per the Transparency International, Nigeria is supposed to be one of the most corrupt countries in the world. But the news papers are still full of stories of corruption.


Nigeria has all the potential to become one of the most developed countries in Africa. There is a vision to develop Nigeria in to one of the top 20 economies in the world.. Nigeria got a very active media, active citizens groups and civil society formations. There are a substantial number of highly educated and aware professionals with an entrepreneurial spirit. The country got some of the richest reserves of natural resources. Lagos is one of the fastest growing cities in the world. But there is a need for a strong institutional basis for accountable, transparent and effective governance in the country. With more investments in human and social development as well as effective economic management, Nigeria has all it takes to overcome the causes and consequences of poverty as well as to thrive as socially and economically vibrant country in the world. The question is whether there is enough political will and social capability to make such a transformation possible. Many of the citizen activists and civil society leaders believe that “ Another Nigeria is Possible”.

Friday, April 4, 2008

Revolution is no Laughter!

Revolution is no Laughter!
Revolution is no merry making.
Follow the grammar please.

Beware!
Brooms will be around...
Brooms like processions; not protests!

Brooms love only puritans!
No heretics please…
Don't laugh, dance or even smile!
Life is too serious a business.


Stand up with reverence for the "second coming".
Don't speak, don't smoke, don't hug, and don't laugh.
Such heresies are injurious to health.
There are no protest and poetry on barren lands

Every protest may need a license to play.
Every protest may be taxed or axed.
Every protest may be followed by brooms
Be as serious as in a funeral home!


Thus heresy begins...
Poetry is protest…
Protest is anger turned laughter,
Hate transformed in to a joyful hug...
Love bloomed in to resistance...
Resistance in eternal search for revolution within...
Revolution is another name for Love...
In a romantic nostalgia for Che Guevara...
On a trip through the Motor Cycle Diaries.

Such heresies are not permitted.
Trespassers will be prosecuted!
The Church knows how to deal with heretics
Inquisitions, lurking in the memory lanes
The clergy has prepared
For the “second coming”!
With liturgy of revolution
With hymns, chants and fragrance
Elevating rituals and memories of saints.
Che could be in the altar
Nowhere else!
In the Altar, revolution is hope
Eternally postponed.
To be remembered periodically
Like the Crucifixion and resurrection!

Heretics make laughter out of revolutions.
Hugs out of”struggles"
Smoke out the devils within...
Such heresy will be broomed out...
Cleansed off with firmness...
In Gods own Country!

Beware!
God’s own country
Needs more brooms
Less protest or Poetry
God’s own country is waiting
For a river cleansing!

( John Samuel.03.04.08.Dubai Airport)